Rating: Windows Phone to overtake iOS by 0.1 % in 2015
Most analysts firmly believe that the key to success in the smartphone sector is the North American marketplace. The latest researcher to draw this conclusion is IHS iSuppli see here. Wayne Lam, a senior analyst for wireless communications with IHS, “This hot product [Lumia 900] represents Nokia’s first step to reclaim its market share. Combined with Nokia’s efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015.” Actually, IHS predictions give Windows Phone one tenth of a point lead over iOS by 2015. More significant are IHS’s predictions for Nokia’s Windows Phone market share.The company says, “Although Nokia is not the only seller of Windows Phone smartphones, the company is expected to dominate the market, accounting for 50 per cent of all Microsoft OS-based handsets sold in 2012.”
The interesting point here is that these predictions were obviously created before the launch of a dirt cheap W7 Mango Phone – the Tania from ZTE. See our previous story here.
Moreover, IHS believes that Nokia’s share of WP7 is set to rise to 62 percent in 2013. However, this lead should begin to decline in 2014.
Why? Because other makers of Windows Phone devices, such as Samsung [The No.1 handset maker, don't forget] and HTC will offer more products supporting the OS.
IHS obviously believes that Nokia can mimic Apple in the smartphone sector and build its success on a tiny number of models.
Nokia only has three W7 Mango products to date and one of those still isn’t available here in the UK.
Francis Sideco, a senior principal analyst for consumer and communications with IHS commented, “The introduction of the Lumia 900 shows that Nokia believes the road back to smartphone dominance runs through North America.”
What Nokia’s Stephen Elop appears to have done is convince the US market that it is putting that region first.
The big problem with IHS’s three-year forecast is that anything could happen in that time.
No-one could have forseen that Nokia would kill off Symbian such a long time before its W7 Mango phones were ready.
Analysts seems to forget that Samsung is now the company giving the lead in the handset market. And Samsung has an OS called bada that is its very own. What happens if it puts a great push behind bada in the US market, eh?
