Mobile ad revenues: USD5.08bn by 2012
Rating; something’s got to give first
By Annie Turner
Local mobile search, part of Opus Research, has released research that forecasts the US and Western European mobile advertising revenues will reach a combined USD 5.08bn by 2012, up from an estimated USD 106.8m at year end 2007. The US is anticipated to drive roughly USD2.3bn of the total, while European markets will see revenues approaching USD 2.8bn within the forecast period. The figure represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 116% for the combined regions.
The projections incorporate growth in ad revenues driven by each of the now relatively distinct segments of voice-based search, text/SMS, WAP and application downloads. The forecast also includes estimates for CPM-driven displays or banners, pay-per-click and pay-per-call advertising. Over time, however, the distinctions between segments will blur or disappear as sales of bundled, “multi-modal” promotions become the norm and consumer experiences become more integrated.
Hmmm. For growth to happen, the cost of mobile search has to come down, which for most parties (apart from the hapless end user) is why advertising is looming large – it’s another way of shoving the cost onto someone else. Current models are not working, guys, and some serious thought needs to go into just how the market is going to grow for the benefit of all – even the consumer who is royally ripped off right now by flat rate packages that aren’t. Still, Opus’ figures seem rather more realistic than many that are batted about, no names mentioned.
The cost of mobile search will be published in the November issue of The Mobile Search Analyst. See www.bkimedia.com on Thursday for more information.
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