Report predicts demise of OS-centric app storefronts

Rating: Bring on D2C and HTML5

Market Analyst, Juniper Research has just released a new report that predicts the demise of OS-centric app storefronts in favour of HTML5 and direct-to-consumer (D2C) models. “The closer integration between web-based apps and handsets should mean that the advantage that native apps have is reduced,” the report claims. That will favour HTML5 which is a mark-up language that reduces end-user dependence on plug-in app technologies. Smartphones users will utilise their handset’s browser to access platform independent apps. This report also highlights the growing importance of operator and in-app billing and predicts tablets’ share of the apps market will rise considerably. According to the report’s author, Dr Windsor Holden, “While we are likely to see some larger media publishers – particularly those dependent on subscription revenues – migrating to a D2C model, this is by no means true for the majority of companies.

Most do not possess the scale of traffic to make D2C a viable option: in most cases, the storefront will continue to be the optimal discovery and distribution mechanism.”

The report also concludes that most network operator storefronts will struggle to attract developers due to lack of scale.

By contrast, the introduction of operator billing across leading storefronts – such as the Android Market and Ovi Store had led to a dramatic rise in revenues.

Additionally, the mass deployment of in-app billing options has meant that – for many storefronts – post-download revenues had surpassed those of PPD (Pay-Per-Download).

Significantly, the report predicts that tablets – which presently account for just 7 per cent of global app revenues – would comprise 25 per cent of such revenues by 2016, by which time annual revenues from consumer mobile applications will approach $52 billion.

The report estimates that in 2011, over 31 billion apps were downloaded to mobile devices. The report breaks that figure down by eight categories.

Prices start from £1,750 for a single user version of the report – Mobile Apps Stores: Future Business Models & Ecosystem Analysis 2012-2016.

However, there’s a Mobile Apps whitepaper which is free to view on the Juniper website.