The iPhone will wane by 2012 says Volantis

Rating:  Reason is because of HTML5 and mobile phone users are cheapskates

A rather controversial survey, Volantis‘ Mobile Web Usage Forecast, has just predicted that the iPhone will wane in influence within two years (i.e. by 2012). One reason is that 15 per cent of Yanks and five per cent of us Brits are essentially cheapskates. The other reason given is that the arrival of HTML5 will release developers from the constraints of Flash. Wow.The core research for the Volantis Forecast was conducted by YouGov which surveyed 4,000 people in the UK and the USA. Volantis has also thrown in some research from the consulting group, Chetan Sharma.

Apparently that research group forecasts that the app market is expected to increase to 50 billion downloads by 2012 with the advent of HTML5.

This has led Mark Watson, CEO with Volantis, to declare that, “We expect developers to see the demand for gaming based web services expand exponentially with the introduction of HTML5 on mobile and the freedom for web-based applications that this creates.”

The theory is that HTML5 will free developers from having to focus on either ‘Apple’ or ‘Other’ applications because everything will be available on the mobile web. A sort of mobile cloud computing, then?

Is GoMo News missing something here? Apple with the iPhone is aiming to free developers from the tyranny of Adobe’s Flash – by focusing on HTML5 instead. Yet HTML5 is painted as the liberator here.

Wouldn’t Apple – of all companies – have noticed that its actions might be guaranteed to knock its existing lucrative mobile apps business on the head? Surely it has thought its software strategy through?

But Volantis has got the figures to back up its vision of a liberated future. Over one third (38 per cent) of those Brits and Yanks questioned by YouGov felt that an iPhone was inconsequential as part of having a good mobile web experience.

Only one in ten Americans backed the American Pie of handsets and thought that an iPhone was essential to enjoy the mobile internet. Tut-tut, what a disgrace.

There’s lots of other mobile gaming specific references in Volantis’ report. But the idea that one cloud based computing development can finish of the iPhone is fascinating.